Having understood what drives demand we can define the requirements for future mobile networks: As stated earlier, one gigabyte of data traffic per user per day is about 60 times the average data traffic seen in mature mobile operator networks today. On top of this, the growth in mobile broadband penetration and the surge of connected objects will lead to around ten times more endpoints attached to mobile operator networks than today. To prepare for this, we need to find ways to radically push the capacity and data rates of mobile networks into new dimensions to handle this amount of data traffic.
Yet, being able to deal with this traffic growth is just one aspect. An increasing number of real-time apps will test the performance of the networks. To support them with a good user experience we need to find ways to reduce the end-to-end latency imposed by the network to milliseconds. Tactile (touch/response) and machine-to-machine interactions in particular have low latency demands that can be as low as in the single digit milliseconds range.
To ensure mobile broadband remains affordable even while supporting the capacity and real-time requirements described previously, we also need to radically reduce the network Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) per Gigabyte of traffic. We believe one important lever to address this will be to automate all tasks of network and service operation by teaching networks to be self-aware, self-adapting and intelligent. This will help to reduce CAPEX/IMPEX for network installation as well as OPEX for network and service management. In addition to lower TCO, self-aware and intelligent networks will be able to understand their user’s needs and automatically act to deliver the best personalized experience.
To further reduce costs per GB, we need to share network resources through both within a single operator network, as well as between operators. It will include physical infrastructure, software platforms, sites, spectrum assets or even the network as a whole. We must also find ways to increase the energy efficiency. In addition to their environmental impact the energy costs account today for up to 10% (in mature markets) and up to 50% (in emerging markets) of an operator’s network OPEX and they have been growing constantly in the last years.
The most powerful way of course to deal with the cost pressure will be to identify new revenue streams. Are end customers and termination fees really the sole revenue source for operators, or will technologies enable new business models that allow operators to better monetize all their assets?
Ultimately we of course need to admit that due to the fast pace of change in the industry it is simply not possible to predict all requirements future networks will face. There will be many use cases that are simply not known today. To cope with this uncertainty, flexibility must be a key requirement as well.